By E. Lundsgaarde
Combining reports of demography, weather swap, know-how and innovation, political improvement, new actors in overseas improvement, and international governance frameworks, this ebook highlights the key underlying determinants of swap within the African context and key uncertainties in regards to the continent's destiny improvement customers.
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Additional info for Africa Toward 2030: Challenges for Development Policy
For this reason, scenario analysis practitioners are often careful to distinguish the approach from forecasting, which offers projections based on an analysis of consistent patterns of relationships between variables observed in the past (van der Heijden 2005). Second, the definition of scenarios as narratives of the future highlights that scenarios have an explanatory quality. Rather than only providing a description of a future end state, scenarios can explain how phenomena might unfold through time.
Following discussions of assumptions concerning the state of African development and European development cooperation, workshop participants were divided into small groups to name influential drivers of change and to raise open questions and uncertainties related to these drivers. In exchanging thoughts on the relevance of particular drivers in a group setting, the factors that seem intuitively more important to participants are brought to light and there is an opportunity to explain why these factors could have a determining influence over future developments in the face of possible disagreements with other participants.
The difficulty in giving a verdict on the usefulness of scenario analyses is undoubtedly related to the diversity of the goals of individual exercises, differing levels of analysis across scenario initiatives, and variations in the techniques that are used to create scenarios. As the shortcomings in scenario analyses identified by Greeuw et al. indicate, scenarios can be evaluated in terms of both how the process leading to their creation is organised and what the qualities of the end product are.