Analisis Tecnico de Los Mercados Financieros / Technical by John J. Murphy

By John J. Murphy

Este handbook de ejercicios y textos de autoevaluación le ayudará a aprender las herramientas del análisis técnico que se exponen en el libro Análisis Técnico de los Mercados Financieros que es el más completo en los angeles materia. Empieza con los fundamentos de l. a. Teoría de Dow y desarrolla todas las técnicas, inclusive las más act

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Extra resources for Analisis Tecnico de Los Mercados Financieros / Technical Analysis of Financial Markets (Spanish Edition)

Example text

However, it comes about in an entirely different manner. Whereas subjective TA suffers from a lack of quantitative evidence, objective TA suffers from faulty inferences drawn from quantitative evidence. This problem and possible solutions are explored in Chapter 6. A PERSONAL ANECDOTE: FIRST A TRUE TA BELIEVER, THEN A SKEPTIC A book on the necessity of quantitative objective evidence may be a strange place for personal anecdotes. Nevertheless, I offer a firsthand account of my initial conversion to a true believer in TA, my fall from faith, and my rebirth as a scientific skeptic who believes TA can offer value when researched in a disciplined manner.

Nobel Laureate Herbert Simon called this the principle of bounded rationality. ”20 Consequently, we attend to only a small fraction of the torrent of information the world presents and process it in simplistic ways. 21 Even more limited is the mind’s ability to handle problems requiring configural thinking. A configural-thinking problem requires that a multitude of factors (variables) be considered simultaneously as an inseparable configuration. 22 Medical diagnosis is typically a configural-thinking problem.

In addition, overconfidence is reinforced by yet other cognitive biases that distort what is learned from experience, including the self-attribution bias, the confirmation bias, and the hindsight bias, which are discussed later. 32 Studies have shown extreme overconfidence in tasks such as predicting the outcome of horse races,33 distinguishing European from American 46 • • • • • • • • METHODOLOGICAL, PSYCHOLOGICAL, PHILOSOPHICAL, STATISTICAL FOUNDATIONS handwriting, and predicting rising versus falling stock prices.

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